In Forex trading many traders are increasingly using ‘Pivot Points’ as one of their key technical tools. While you should never reply solely on just one indicator it is a fact that pivot points are one of the best tools out there and you should learn how to use them in your trading.
A big reason for their popularity is the relative ease of calculation and application. Unlike some deep math indicators such as Parabolic SAR or Exponential Moving Averages the average trader with school level math can use them with ease after a bit of practice.
Pivot Point Calculation
To calculate pivot points is simplicity itself. The formula is: (H+L+C)/3 - where C is the currency pairs’ closing price for a given day, H is the high for the previous 24 hour period and L the low. In short, the pivot point is simply the arithmetic mean (the ‘average’) of the three prices.
Choosing the time for C is rather arbitrary as currency markets trade 24 hours per day. It’s often taken at the New York Forex market closing time, 4 p.m. EST. This number, usually denoted P, is used in conjunction with several others - called resistance and support points - in order to form the basis of a trading strategy. The resistance and support points are calculated like this -
R1 = (P x 2) - L
S1 = (P x 2) - H
R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
How to choose a price for the resistance and support levels is central and traders differ. Some strategies use the pivot point itself as a key point of support or resistance, depending on the direction of recent price movements. Others use the closing price of the previous day.
If the price breaks above the pivot point, trending up, the market is tending bullish and vice-versa. In the first circumstance the pivot point would be a point of resistance, since prices ‘resist’ moving above that level. In the latter case, it’s a support point.
As well as evaluating trends, pivot points can be used as part of an entry and exit strategy. You might choose to place an order to buy or sell if the price breaks through a certain point. Similarly the point can be used to help select a stop-loss level in the event it moves below a support level.
Remember that no one indicator can be used as the sole input to a good trading strategy but pivot points do perform well as part of an overall approach involving other indicators such as Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)
Many trader analysts hold that pivot points achieve their useful status as a result of two tendencies.
Tactics
Sometimes called ‘trading between the lines’, is one popular approach. Traders wait for the reversal of the trend off a resistance point, then sell. Similarly, when the price trends upward after bouncing off a support point, a buy order can be triggered. If the market trades near R2 or S2, prices will tend to move back toward the pivot point.
Of course, this approach has to be viewed with some skepticism, as most strategies should be. Resistance and support points are broken all the time, otherwise they’d be no market! So, one has to wonder what makes those particular numbers resistance and support points.
The extent to which pivot points create good trading decisions varies according to many factors e.g., the market conditions and trader skill. But, that they do so to some degree beyond question.
The central problem is that it’s always hard to know when a price movement is a temporary blip or bounce as opposed to a serious shift (oh if I could know that…!) And as any trader knows by the time the trend is definite it’s often running out of steam and too late to profit. As ever there’s no substitute for experience over time to increase your rate of good calls on moves.